SubscribeYesterday, Advanced Fantasy Baseball posted Ten Questions to Consider in Keeper Leagues. While a lot of the questions are common sense for keepers, this one intrigued me:
9. How much is the inflation in your league? Calculating a rough estimate of the inflation in your league before keepers are declared can give you edge on the rest of the league. It will help you figure out what the players in the pool will cost while you still have the ability to alter your keeper list.
What affect does inflation have on your keeper list?
Let’s suppose we are trying to decide if we should keep Adrian Beltre at $5 or Justin Morneau at $15. Using CHONE’s projections in the Price Guide, in 2009 those players might be worth about $10 and $20, respectively. We save five bucks regardless of whom we keep.
But what if we’re expecting 20% inflation based on the other teams’ keepers? If we throw back Beltre we can expect him to go for $12 at the auction. Morneau, however, would probably end up at $24. Now Beltre’s keeper price is $7 below the auction price, and Morneau is a slightly better deal at $9 below.
So while I don’t think inflation considerations should play a large part in keeper decisions, it does seem it could made a difference. If you are expecting significant keeper inflation in your league, it might make sense to favor keeping more expensive players.
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