SubscribeBy my calculations, this week’s rush of free agent signings (Sheets, Nady, Thome, Winn, Garland, etc.) has left only five free agents with positive fantasy value.
These are players who have two main questions marks surrounding them for 2010: The first question is what their situation will be like on the team where they sign. Will they be an everyday starter or just a bat off the bench? And the other concern is age. Most of these guys are well into their 30’s, and some decline is expected. There’s a possibility, however, that they’re in for a nosedive instead of a gentle decline.
Both of those risk factors make these five players worth watching as the season gets closer:
Johnny Damon ($14)
Now that it looks like the Yankees have moved on without him, I’m very concerned about Damon’s fantasy value. He managed a revival last year launching homeruns into the short RF porch at New Yankee Stadium, so leaving New York looks like bad news for him.
(CHONE and CAIRO both try to adjust for park, but Yankee Stadium as a whole was not that favorable for homeruns. Damon, however, seemed to particularly exploit its dimensions in a way that aren’t accounted for in the park factors. I think the HR’s projected are way too optimistic.)
Then there’s age: Damon is 36 years old. He’s a lock to sit out 15-20 games. Basically, I’m not betting that Damon manages to repeat anything like last year, and I’m not going anywhere near the $14 the Price Guide suggests for him.
Erik Bedard ($12)
The Price Guide has an unhealthy infatuation with pitchers who don’t pitch many innings, so of course Bedard with his projected 106 IP is a Price Guide favorite.
He is projected to strike out over 9 batters per nine with a solid ERA and WHIP, so there’s definitely something to like here. If he puts together most of a full season in 2010 he’ll be a steal at $12.
Jermaine Dye ($10)
Somehow Jermaine Dye is a player who had completely fallen off of my radar: I never would have guessed he was projected as a double-digit player, and I was even a little surprised that he was valued above replacement ($7) last year.
I think I must have been burned on him in 2007, when he followed up a 44 HR, .315 BA year in 2006 with 28 HR and a .254 average. Since then, he’s maintained his 25+ HR power, but the average has varied tremendously.
The Reds look like they could be a good fit for Dye, if he’s still up for playing OF everyday, and Great American Ballpark seems like a good fantasy location. I’m not finding a whole lot of teams that have a regular spot open for an OF/DH, though.
Orlando Cabrera ($10)
Cabrera has seemingly been a fantasy mediocrity for years. I think part of that reputation is that he doesn’t stand out in any category: He hits a few homeruns, but not too many. He steals a handful of bags, but is never among the league leaders. His batting average is decent — not a killer but nothing special, either.
If he can find an everyday job, then I expect Cabrera will put up another unremarkable (but still valuable) fantasy season.
Felipe Lopez ($6)
Felipe is looking for potentially his sixth team in five years. Despite being continually passed around by real teams, he’s the kind of player who can provide a cheap boost for a fantasy team if you stick with him.
In previous years, Lopez has added some fantasy value by qualifying all over the diamond — playing some 2B, 3B, SS, and OF. This year he will initially only qualify at 2B, although (depending on where he signs) he may gain another position quickly.
A few other names worth keeping an eye on:
Darren Oliver
Orlando Hudson
Jarrod Washburn
Garret Anderson
Kevin Gregg
John Smoltz
Related posts:
I’m interested to see where Orlando Hudson goes. If he goes somewhere where he’ll get a good amount of playing time, he could turn out to be a great bargain in a very shallow 2B pool this year.
@Molson: Maybe so, but the projections have him just below replacement level with over 500 AB. He started off hot last year (.330 BA through May) but still ended up at the bottom of the 2B pile.
I guess I’m not interested in Hudson this year. He might not play everyday, and — if history is any guide — he’s still only adequate for fantasy even when playing 140+ games.
…and Orlando Cabrera signs with the Reds.
That looks like a pretty good situation to land in: Good park, not much competition for SS. Any defensive decline he is showing doesn’t hurt his fantasy value unless it causes him to lose playing time.
He looks like a boring, end-game fantasy SS. Again.