SubscribeThe first projections for 2010 are here!
Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com has graciously allowed me to include his 2010 CHONE projections on the Price Guide.
CHONE is a computerized projection system that has year-after-year produced some of the most accurate predictions. In addition to CHONE, Sean is also recognized for the development of his historical Wins Above Replacement (WAR) data, statistical measurements for comparing players (1871-2009) across positions and eras. It’s not fantasy-related, but it is very impressive and a testament to some of the hard work Sean has done in baseball research.
As usual with projection systems, there are no saves projected in CHONE, but we’ll be discussing save candidates a bit later. (Of course, since the Price Guide lets you customize the projections to your own liking, it’s pretty easy to add your own save predictions.)
Please let me know if you notice any problems. Thanks again to Sean for making this happen.
Related posts:
Thanks a lot to both of you guys! What a sweet time of year!
About saves: I didn’t discover this site until too late last season, but I notice that the CHONE ‘09 projections included saves. Did Sean come up with the figures? Or if not, from where were they derived?
How is a pitcher’s saves projection decided in composite projections where there are some systems with and without save totals projected? Do you simply denote which system a projection is from and then only average save totals from the projections which do include them?
@LittlePanda: I haven’t seen any CHONE projections that included saves… Are you sure?
@Josh: Yes, the composite projections only factor in the projections that include a given stat. So last year, CHONE’s projections for W and ER were included in the composite, but the lack of S doesn’t drag down the average.
Thanks for the info about how you have the process running, Mays.
I was going to ask if there might be any possibility of having a CSV download for the results the Price Guide gives, but just realized that the table was able to be properly pasted directly into a spreadsheet. Quite helpful for aggregating the various projections (and I see CAIRO is up now as well!).
@Mays:
No, you’re right, of course. I think I was confused because I noticed over the last couple weeks that CHONE and ZiPS don’t project saves, but I knew that your 2009 composite totals included saves. But now I see that, of course, those projections come just from MARCEL and CAIRO. Sorry for clogging up your comments with confusion I could have easily cleared up myself. :)
Hi Mays,
Do you anticipate including any new projections in your list of projections this year? If so, do you think you’ll include them in the composite as well?
@John:
I’m hoping that I’ll be able to use ZiPS and Marcel here when they are available, but I don’t know that yet.
If that’s the case, I’d at least throw ZiPS into the composite, as well. Last year I didn’t add Marcel because it tended to drag down the projections for all of the young players.