SubscribeIn case you missed it, Tango is running a competition to see which forecaster can do the best at projecting stats for fantasy.
The competitors include all of the systems you see on the Price Guide: CHONE, CAIRO, and Marcel. Past evaluations have focused on “real” baseball accuracy using OPS and ERA, but this contest is geared specifically towards fantasy categories and the fantasy draft pool.
I’m especially interested to see how the fantasy-focused projectors (Rotoworld, Ask Rotoman, Fantasy Scope, Razzball, Derek Carty) do against the general competition.
It’s too bad we have to wait until October to see how things turn out.
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I had read about this a couple of months ago but wasn’t interested because originally it appeared that valuation methodology would also play a role, as opposed to strictly the projections. The rules were changed so that it’s much easier to rank players, so I let Tom know I wanted to participate, but unfortunately it was too late. I’m apparently an alternate now, so I’m crossing my fingers that my projections published at FantasyPros911 will be included.
Mays, would you have any interest in running a retroactive forecaster challenge for 2008 or 2007 using the price guide? I’ve got the projections if you want them…
Any chance you add zips when they come out. Zips I find, as well as other studies done, is better than chone.
I haven’t asked Dan about it, but I’d love to include ZiPS if he’s OK with it.
And I haven’t seen anything that puts ZiPS as clearly better than CHONE… The studies I’m aware of had everyone really close, but with CHONE out a little in front for 2008:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/evaluating_the_2008_forecasting_systems/
I guess we’ll learn more after 2009. :-)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=564
( done by Pecota including 8 Projections, Pecota and Zips run away with it and win badly)
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2007/tips_assessingprojections.php
( for 05/06 zips does poorly in hitting but excels in pitching)
http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2006/12/pecota.html
(another year, zips wins pitching)
It changes year from year I just personally find zips to be more consistent, it’s especially good for pitchers, their hitters though you need to throw some projections out like for rookies.