SubscribeYesterday, I asked what you would be willing to pay for Stephen Strasburg if your draft were held today. Reassuringly, the comments I received echoed what I had been thinking, and they basically raised the same questions that I have.
The projections so far (CAIRO and ZiPS) have him as a late-round 4.00+ ERA pitcher for about half of a season. That would probably be worth a mid-single digit bid in most leagues.
But there are enough questions around Strasburg to make bidding much more complicated. I see at the following factors weighing in on Strasburg’s value:
How many innings will Strasburg pitch in 2010?
I don’t follow the Nationals too closely, but right now it looks like there’s at least a chance Strasburg could start the season in the majors. There aren’t a ton of great options available for Washington, so a good spring gives Strasburg a shot at spending April in D.C.
However, it has become common practice to cap a young player’s innings to prevent injuries, and so I’d say the most optimistic prediction for Strasburg would be 160 IP. The Nationals won’t have anything to play for in September, so I’d think they would shut him down.
Of course, the Nationals may also decide to start Strasburg off in the minors. In that case, we’re talking about something closer to 100 IP.
I’d say the risk of only getting 100-150 IP out of a SP is a factor that keeps Strasburg’s value low for 2010.
How high is the upside?
I mentioned yesterday that projecting Strasburg in 2010 is more complex than just picking a single number, like a 4.38 ERA. I’m making up some numbers here, but let’s throw out some quick probabilities for what Strasburg’s ERA might look like:
5% – 3.00
10% – 3.50
25% – 4.00
40% – 4.50
20% – 5.00
That gives, on average, a 4.30 ERA. It also gives Strasburg a 5% chance of becoming a top-tier pitcher immediately. There’s a 10% chance he winds up in the middle-tier for fantasy, and a 25% chance he’s worth a late-round grab. Most (60%) of the time, however, he’s waiver wire fodder.
I admittedly have no idea how realistic those probabilities are. However, I think the chance of him being either good or very good gives him a much higher ceiling than your typical 4.38 ERA pitcher. And I think that upside must slant his value a little bit higher.
How much risk can your fantasy team assume?
When drafting, I try to balance out upside picks with more conservative choices. If I already have, say, Roy Oswalt and Roy Halladay, then I have quite a bit of freedom to take some chances with the rest of my pitching staff.
The answer to this question will be mostly dependent on how your draft is progressing when Strasburg comes up. But I think it also matters regardless of context specifics. In general, I think pitching depth looks pretty good this year. It seems like it will be possible to put together a solid, reliable staff without spending too much money. The availability of quality SP might make me somewhat more inclined to take on a riskier proposition.
Put all of those factors together, and I’m guessing that I’d be willing to bid about $8 on Strasburg in a typical league. That’s not enough to ruin my season if things go wrong, but I think there’s a decent chance he’s worth it.
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One thing you did not address was Strasburg’s value in a keeper league. What would you pay for him in this scenario?
@Chris: I didn’t touch it primarily because there are so many keeper rule variations, but it is a good question. Let’s pretend you can keep Strasburg for two more years at the same price after you draft him.
With keepers, you are bidding on the optimistic scenario. Let’s suppose we’re optimistically hoping for an averagish 2010 ($10), a good 2011 ($25), and an excellent 2012 ($35) from Strasburg. Out of the optimistic scenarios, that one seems fairly realistic.
My gut puts that at about $15 of value (plus inflation) at the auction. Best case, you’re paying $45 for $70 of value. If you spend much more, you’re not really getting a bargain, and you’re testing the likelihood of even the optimistic scenario.
Does that sound right?
Yeah that makes sense. There is a particular guy in my keeper that always goes after the blue chip super-2′s and he will surely go after Strasburg this year. Just wanted to get an idea on how deep I should go with him. I definitely try to drive up his prices knowing he won’t back down, but I also don’t want to get stuck over paying… Thanks for the insight.
What about Chapman?
@HustlinOwl: Aroldis Chapman is a much greater unknown than Strasburg. Projections for Strasburg are based on how pitchers with similar college stats did in MLB. With Chapman, there just aren’t enough pitchers who have made the transition from Cuban leagues to MLB to get a very good feel for how much adjustment needs to be made for league quality.
At least from a scouting perspective, Strasburg is much higher regarded (consensus #2 prospect while Keith Law ranks Chapman at #16). I probably wouldn’t go for Chapman in a redraft league, but might bid a couple of dollars in a keeper league.