Comments on: The Strasburg Questions http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/the-strasburg-questions/ Fantasy Baseball Dollar Values, Rankings, and Discussion Wed, 23 Jun 2010 22:43:43 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Mays http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/the-strasburg-questions/#comment-6247 Mays Mon, 01 Feb 2010 04:03:35 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=955#comment-6247 @HustlinOwl: Aroldis Chapman is a much greater unknown than Strasburg. Projections for Strasburg are based on how pitchers with similar college stats did in MLB. With Chapman, there just aren't enough pitchers who have made the transition from Cuban leagues to MLB to get a very good feel for how much adjustment needs to be made for league quality. At least from a scouting perspective, Strasburg is much higher regarded (consensus #2 prospect while Keith Law ranks Chapman at #16). I probably wouldn't go for Chapman in a redraft league, but might bid a couple of dollars in a keeper league. @HustlinOwl: Aroldis Chapman is a much greater unknown than Strasburg. Projections for Strasburg are based on how pitchers with similar college stats did in MLB. With Chapman, there just aren’t enough pitchers who have made the transition from Cuban leagues to MLB to get a very good feel for how much adjustment needs to be made for league quality.

At least from a scouting perspective, Strasburg is much higher regarded (consensus #2 prospect while Keith Law ranks Chapman at #16). I probably wouldn’t go for Chapman in a redraft league, but might bid a couple of dollars in a keeper league.

]]> By: HustlinOwl http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/the-strasburg-questions/#comment-6240 HustlinOwl Sun, 31 Jan 2010 05:11:40 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=955#comment-6240 What about Chapman? What about Chapman?

]]> By: Chris http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/the-strasburg-questions/#comment-6237 Chris Fri, 29 Jan 2010 20:16:52 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=955#comment-6237 Yeah that makes sense. There is a particular guy in my keeper that always goes after the blue chip super-2's and he will surely go after Strasburg this year. Just wanted to get an idea on how deep I should go with him. I definitely try to drive up his prices knowing he won't back down, but I also don't want to get stuck over paying... Thanks for the insight. Yeah that makes sense. There is a particular guy in my keeper that always goes after the blue chip super-2’s and he will surely go after Strasburg this year. Just wanted to get an idea on how deep I should go with him. I definitely try to drive up his prices knowing he won’t back down, but I also don’t want to get stuck over paying… Thanks for the insight.

]]> By: Mays http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/the-strasburg-questions/#comment-6231 Mays Thu, 28 Jan 2010 23:05:58 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=955#comment-6231 @Chris: I didn't touch it primarily because there are so many keeper rule variations, but it is a good question. Let's pretend you can keep Strasburg for two more years at the same price after you draft him. With keepers, you are bidding on the optimistic scenario. Let's suppose we're optimistically hoping for an averagish 2010 ($10), a good 2011 ($25), and an excellent 2012 ($35) from Strasburg. Out of the optimistic scenarios, that one seems fairly realistic. My gut puts that at about $15 of value (plus inflation) at the auction. Best case, you're paying $45 for $70 of value. If you spend much more, you're not really getting a bargain, and you're testing the likelihood of even the optimistic scenario. Does that sound right? @Chris: I didn’t touch it primarily because there are so many keeper rule variations, but it is a good question. Let’s pretend you can keep Strasburg for two more years at the same price after you draft him.

With keepers, you are bidding on the optimistic scenario. Let’s suppose we’re optimistically hoping for an averagish 2010 ($10), a good 2011 ($25), and an excellent 2012 ($35) from Strasburg. Out of the optimistic scenarios, that one seems fairly realistic.

My gut puts that at about $15 of value (plus inflation) at the auction. Best case, you’re paying $45 for $70 of value. If you spend much more, you’re not really getting a bargain, and you’re testing the likelihood of even the optimistic scenario.

Does that sound right?

]]> By: Chris http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/the-strasburg-questions/#comment-6230 Chris Thu, 28 Jan 2010 17:47:51 +0000 http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/?p=955#comment-6230 One thing you did not address was Strasburg's value in a keeper league. What would you pay for him in this scenario? One thing you did not address was Strasburg’s value in a keeper league. What would you pay for him in this scenario?

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