SubscribeThe focus of this blog is primarily on fantasy baseball drafts and auctions. While much of the discussion is on nuances and details of drafting, I think I can condense my draft strategy into two simple rules:
Rule #1: Trust your projections, not your intuition.
Too often, our expectations are too high for a player coming off of an unexpectedly good year. Our expectations may be too low for a player after a poor or injury-plagued year. We may underrate old players with good time left and overrate exciting young prospects.
In all of these cases we are trying to mentally adjust a player’s value, and these adjustments are made objectively and consistently by good projections. Players will be regressed to the mean to compensate for fluctuations in past years. Their stats are adjusted up or down based on an expected aging curve.
Furthermore, we can be biased for or against certain players or teams with no logical underpinning for liking or disliking them. For example, I think Kevin Youkilis looks like a hobo. I think he looks like he’s about to wet his pants every time he comes to bat, and I don’t want him on my team. However, none of those opinions should change his value at the draft.
The bottom line is that projections adjust for the right things — fluke seasons, aging, park effects, etc. Trying to estimate those changes in your head will not be as effective.
Projections also make no adjustment for things that do not matter — your own personal likes or dislikes.
Rule #2: Trust your intuition, not your projections.
My second rule for drafting is simply the reverse of the first rule.
This rule observes that, while projections are good, they are far from perfect. It is naive to believe that a player projected at $25 is worth exactly that and not a penny more or less. All that projection is really indicating is that $25 is the most likely value from a wide range of possibilities. There’s a good chance he’ll be worth about $20-30, but he could also be worth $50 or nothing at all. It doesn’t make sense to be so wedded to projections that are inaccurate so often.
Furthermore, a pre-draft dollar value does not make any change for in-draft dynamics. If pitchers are going for less (or going later) then you will want to drop pitcher values and reallocate that money elsewhere. If you get a starting shortstop for $30, then the value of remaining SS drops, at least for you.
Basically, a $25 projection should not stop you from bidding one dollar more or five dollars more, and it shouldn’t force you to go above $19. That decision is going to be dependent on the circumstances at the time.
While a good set of dollar values is valuable, it shouldn’t be the final word on a draft decision.
So those are my two rules for drafting. Does anyone have any other guiding principles at the draft?
Related posts:
“If pitchers are going for less (or going later) then you will want to drop pitcher values and reallocate that money elsewhere.”
to me this is a giant question. if you trust that your projects and values are accurate, and at the draft it turns out all SP are being bought for much less than your projected values, then why not load up on SP? wouldn’t this be where the most value (Value = Projected Worth – Cost) can be gained at the draft?
by adjusting your values, aren’t you letting the rest of the league dictate what players are worth? if you do this, what edge can you have?
Look at the average of the top 3 totals in each category from last year’s league. That gives you an idea of what you’re aiming to hit this season. When you draft a player, figure out how close to that total your player will get you based upon projections. Think about the players on the board that are likely to help you more in areas where you need more help.
Know your tiers. If there are three superstars at a position and you see all three of those guys run off the board quickly, don’t make the mistake of grabbging #4 quickly just because there was a run at the position. If there is a steep drop off between 3 and 4 but little drop off between 4 and 9, look elsewhere to see if you can get a bigger impact at other positions.
If you miss out on a good player at a certain position start talking trade DURING the draft. You have a lot more bargaining power while you still have picks left. If Bob grabbed SSs with picks 2 and 4, but you need a SS at the end of pick 12, figure out what Bob needs and see if you can make a quick deal done with him. If so, it can influence your remaining picks. You might be able to give up that 4th round 1B you grabbed to get the SS and then pick up a sleeper 1B to back up the 7th rd 1B you pulled.
@Ken: You don’t want to over-adjust, but I think you can still make some adjustments.
If pitchers are going cheap, by all means load up. If you think the top pitchers are worth $35 but no one else is willing to top $25, then you absolutely want to get them at $25. The adjustment comes when you reallocate the $10 you just saved somewhere else so that you still spend all of your money.
You might use the money you saved on pitching to “overbid” $4-5 on a couple of hitters. It’s not what your draft sheet will tell you, but it’s the kind of adjustment you need to make to draft a more optimal team.
@John: Good rules!