SubscribeCAIRO’s latest update gives the Price Guide its first projection for the Washington Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg:
4 W, 4.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 70 K, 76 IP
SG is going from college stats here, so this is still wildly speculative. The Price Guide indicates that a pitcher with those stats isn’t worth starting in most fantasy leagues, including NL-only leagues. It would be the kind of pitcher you draft for your bench, only to drop in April so you can pick up some guy who starts the season on an unexpected hot streak.
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS gives a somewhat more optimistic look for Strasburg:
10 W, 4.18 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 113 K, 114 IP
That’s a draftable pitcher for late in a fantasy baseball draft. The IP make it hard to find a comparable, but that’s roughly what you might expect from Rich Harden or Chris Young. (They have injury risk, but Strasburg has risk as well.) It’s also not too far off from what you might expect from A.J. Burnett (with significantly fewer IP).
With Strasburg, of course, you’re not simply drafting a projected statline. There’s an enormous amount of upside, much more so than your typical 4.38 or 4.18 ERA pitcher. That upside is obvious for those in keeper leagues, but is it worth anything in 2010?
What do you think? Let’s say you’re in a 12 team, standard redraft league and have $260 to spend. If your draft were held today, what would you pay for Stephen Strasburg?
And you can’t say, “I wouldn’t draft him because someone else would pay more.” How cheap would he have to come for you to bid on him?
I’ll give my answer tomorrow.
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This reminds me a bit of the Tim Linceum projections going into 2008. his PECOTA/projections were not great in any system like the one this site uses, though on a per inning basis everyone knew he was going to be great. the question wasn’t really absolute performance, it was how much was he going to play.
there are only roughly 10 guys who will strike out 1 guy per IP AND pitch at least 150 innings. if he gets the innings he could be worth a ton.
More than I’d pay for Colby Lewis ;)
$7.
@Ken: I think the Lincecum comparison is a very good one: College pitcher taken in the first round, debuts the following year, pitches 150 innings with great strikeouts and a 4.00 ERA, becomes a top-tier pitcher in year two.
It would be interesting to see what Lincecum was going for in 2007.
in my league in 2007 Tim Lincecum was undrafted. he was a FA pickup that was added/dropped a few times early in the season, b/c nobody knew when he was going to be up.
even going into 2008 PECOTA/PFM didn’t love him b/c their projected IP totals were way lower than the 227 he ended up pitching. his per inning projected stats were elite though
to add to the above: valuations for rookies are all over the map, in my league and in others I think. some hyped rookies (Wieters, Jay Bruce earlier) go for $10, some less hyped guys that are perhaps 95% as good go for undrafted or for $1.
@Ken, 4: You mention Lincecum in 2008: Even if PECOTA didn’t, ZiPS at least thought he was ready by then, projecting a 3.28 ERA with 173 K in 173 IP. Yeah, he turned out even better, but that projection would have warranted a very high bid in 2008.
So what would you pay for Strasburg?
heh, I’m trying to figure it out now! I have an exclusive option on him for $10, or I can throw him into the player pool where he will be bid on on the open market.
$10 is what Wieters went for last year at our draft, David Price was $10 as well. it’s probably roughly what SS would go for, depending on what the tea leaves say wrt his call up date.
my gut says $10 is probably a few dollars high in all these cases. in any case, I’ll probably see what his PECOTA says, try to make a best IP guess, and find a comp in the Price Guide.
Up to $7, with plenty of caveats.
Who are my other pitchers?
How many bench spots do I have free? How durable is the rest of my team?
How well did I do on offense?
PECOTA is now out
Strasburg:
ERA 4.07
WHIP 1.40 (ouch)
110 K’s in 97 IP (!!!)
what a mixed bag there. those K’s would make him Elite if he gets the innings, but he has wildness to go along with it