SubscribeBy now, I think that most people have weighed in on the trade that sent Matt Holliday to the Oakland A’s in exchange for Huston Street, Greg Smith, and Carlos Gomez.
Reading through what others have written, I see four main issues being brought up regarding Holliday’s 2009 value:
How much does leaving Coors Field hurt?
THT Fantasy Focus thinks he’s a .285 hitter in Oakland; Fantasy Baseball Dugout says “at least .280.” Rotoprofessor puts him down for a more optimistic .317. I don’t see anyone expecting another .340 season out of him.
How does the A’s lineup compare to the Rockies?
Crooked Pitch thinks that Oakland’s lineup doesn’t provide the protection Holliday had in Colorado, and Rotoprofessor brings up a similar point in its article.
Will he still steal bases?
What happens to Holliday’s decent SB totals and fantastic success rate (28 SB and 2 CS in 2008) when he joins a team that is not known for stealing lots of bases?
The best treatment of this that I saw was over at Fangraphs Fantasy Baseball with Don’t Be Silly, The A’s Don’t Steal Bases. R.J. argues that Holliday’s SB opportunities might not change much in Oakland.
What about playing in a contract year?
MVN’s Fantasy Outsider brings up a key point that Holliday stands to be a free agent after 2009. Will that be enough to overcome the other negative factors?
All in all, there’s a mix of positives and negatives, but most people are expecting at least some decline. (RotoAuthority drops him to the late 1st round, RazzBall says 3rd round.)
Next week I’ll examine where Holliday shows up in the Price Guide using some of the projection systems.
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