Last Player Picked

In case you didn’t notice, Dan Szymborski released his ZiPS Projection Spreadsheet this weekend. ZiPS is a projection system that has been very successful in past seasons at forecasting players.

Dan has graciously allowed me to include the ZiPS projections as an option in the Price Guide, where they are available individually and mixed in with CHONE and CAIRO (Composite projections). If you find the ZiPS projections useful, I encourage you to donate a little to Dan to help keep these free. A ton of work goes into making these, and the only credit I can take is as a middle-man.

I’ve also recently updated the CAIRO projections to version 0.4 and CHONE to the freshest 2/28 spreadsheet. Throwing ZiPS in a blender with those two new releases gives a new look to our composite projections that admittedly makes me a little uncomfortable: Joe Mauer has moved into the #1 spot as the projected most valuable hitter for 2010. I think this is due to not only the quality difference between him and the last catcher picked, but also to a difference in quantity. The playing time adjustments indicate that good catchers play more often than bad catchers, even starting at DH or 1B on days they aren’t catching.

In a 1-catcher league, the difference is not as pronounced. But with two starting catchers, the combination of qualitative and quantitative advantages puts a huge gap between Mauer and guys like Ivan Rodriguez and Nick Hundley. I’d be interested if someone has any suggestions for making these rankings stick a little bit closer to reality.

Related posts:

• More 2010 Projections (CAIRO)
• ZiPS Added to Composite Projections
• Projection Updates
• Interesting SB Prospects
• Interesting Catcher Prospects